Digital Chaos Media

Fantasy baseball approacheth; amazingly pitchers and catchers will report in less than 45 days.  Fantasy baseball drafts are already taking place, and if you’re not mocking 2009 the day after 2008, you’re way behind.  With that in mind, here is Vigga’s take on position-by-position rankings in a 6×6 (that’s BB’s or OBP added to a standard 5×5) keeper league.  The numbers beside the player’s name in parentheses provide a way to measure the player across positions so that you can use this info as a draft sheet as well.  I’ll also throw in some sleepers after ranking the cream of the crop… Definite keepers are ranked 7 and up.

The Tip-Top:

1. Albert Pujols (9.5) - This ranking is questionable only because Pujols’ arm is expected to explode into a season-ending mess at some point from now until the end of his career.  But if Dr. J. Andrews can’t figure out what’s going on in there, then what’s the point in guessing?  By nearly every statistical measure, he is the most dominant hitter ever through the first 8 seasons of a career.  He plays over 150 games a year, and you can notch him in for 40 HR, a .330 AVG and a 1.05 OPS.  Plus, he’ll give you a half-dozen swiped bases a season, which ain’t bad from the 1B position.  Silly.
2. Miguel Cabrera (9.5) - As a young buck in the Marlin’s system, Cabrera put up astoundingly well-rounded numbers in his early 20’s, but after an off-season trade to the Tigers a regimen of weightlifting and plyometrics left the hefty 1B unhappy and underweight last April.  Seemingly powered by Ho-Hos and Juju Bees, as Miguel put on weight (how do you put on weight during the MLB’s rigorous season?) throughout the course of last season, he seemed to return to his pre-2008 form.  He’s a natural power hitter, with good lift and ample doubles on top of 35 or so homers a year.  2008 saw Cabrera’s OBP take an unnatural drop from his career arc, so while he may strike out 120 times I’d look for 65+ BB on top of a .320 AVG and 130 RBI.  To be honest, I was tempted to move Cabrera ahead of Pujols because he’s 3 years younger, but we need to see some increased plate discipline before Miguel is crowned the keeper king.
3. Prince Fielder (9) - He had a down year, I know, but there’s just so much to like about the Prince.  First off, if we’re talking potential (and in a keeper league, with a 25 year old, we definitely are) then Prince’s pedigree speaks volumes.  The kid blasted 30 HRs as a 19 year old in Beloit his first year in the minors.  In AAA Nashville a year and a half later he blasted another 30 in less than 400 ABs.  The power is there, and if you can lock him up, he just might give your team 450 HRs over the next 9 or 10 years.  Too long-term?  Bah.  Well, how about 50 next year?  It’s possible, and not only that, the kid depends way less on the fly ball than his main HR rival, Ryan Howard.  While Howard’s career AVG on flyballs is way over .400, Prince is working at a much more sustainable .309 clip.  For two guys who are likely on the move in the Monopoly game that is the MLB, I’ll take the 4 year younger Prince as a less volatile version of Ryan Howard.
4. Mark Teixeira (8.5) - It’s crazy to not have Ryan Howard in the top 4 here, but after much internal debate, Tex is a year younger (the Phils take forever to get their guys to the Bigs) and is now in a long-term deal with a team that will keep solid bats around him for the foreseeable future.  Then there are the numbers: Tex gets on base at a .400 clip, his Ks are on a downward trend, he hits .300 with 40 HR potential, and 140 RBI in pinstripes isn’t a stretch.  His gold glove isn’t a factor in fantasy for the most part, but it does mean that he’s rarely, if ever, going to get a day off.
5. Ryan Howard (8.5) - Like I said, it’s a near toss-up between Tex and Howard going into the 2009 season.  But if we’re talking keeper league, I just don’t like the fact that Howard’s future contract status is unknown.  If he leaves the Phill’s cozy confines it’s almost certain his stats take a meaningful drop: his career AIR rating is 114.  Of course, while he’s in Philly, he’s elite.  In leagues where you don’t pay dearly for his K’s, his only big detractor is that AVG.  Because AVG isn’t a stat that correlates highly with most other meaningful fantasy categories he can give a team punting that category a huge advantage in power numbers.  On the other hand, if you’re trying to build a well-rounded 6 category team, Ryan Howard shares more in common than just a last name with Orlando Magic’s Dwight: they’ll both absolutely drown you in a category.  What about 2006, you say?  .356 BABIP, I say.  But let me leave you with this, the Phillies may find a way to keep Howard.
6. Adrian Gonzalez (7.5) - AGon is linked to his stadium in the same manner as Ryan Howard, but in the opposite sense.  As long as he’s in Petco, Gonzalez will never hit to his potential (98 AIR last season, yuck), certainly not in the HR department.  Fortunately for his owners, it looks like the Padres are going the way of the Marlins, and it’s time to purge.  If Peavy leaves, I can’t see much of a reason for the Padres to keep AGon, but then again, his contract is favorable for the near future, so he’s not a must-deal.  While he swings through more pitches than you’d like to see from a prime hitter, he’s still capable of a .300 AVG and a .370 OBP - add that to 40 HR potential on most any other team and AGon is a monster in the (possible) making.
7. David Ortiz (7.5) - As his wrist goes, so goes Papi.  With an injury like Ortiz’ when it’s gone, it’ll be gone for good, but getting the right amount of rest to let himself heal is a difficult variable to measure.  Ortiz was kind of a late bloomer when it came to power numbers in his early and mid-20’s, but in Fenway he’s an obvious 45 HR threat as long as he’s healthy.  At 32 he’s not too old to give you four or five more great seasons, and that’s worth paying for.  At his best he’s a .300/.400/.600 guy who should be able to get his ABs as a DH without risking too much injury.  Those numbers are really tough to replace.  Like, “worth the risk” difficult to replace.  Losing Manny hurts, we know that, and Papi’s playoff performance suffered without the big bat behind him, but the Sox can offer enough protection with guys like Youkilis and Bay that I’m not too worried about it.
8. Justin Morneau (7.5) - Will we ever see him hit .320 again?  That seems to be the question surrounding Morneau, but I’m not really sure it’s a relevant one.  The fact is, as he’s getting older, his K’s are down and his BB’s are up.  He really reminds me of Teixeira, and I bet he could hit 35-40 HRs if he didn’t have to play in the Metrodome.  Unfortunately, Morneau does play in the Metrodome, so for now I’d take the under on 35 HR and be happy with .300/.370/.520 along with a great propensity for driving in runs.

The Sleeper Field:

1. Chris Davis (6.5) - I was really tempted to put Davis with the rest of the keepers up there, which should tell you something.  The kid could hit 50 HRs next year and it wouldn’t shock me.  He could also strike out 220 times next year, shattering Reynold and Howard’s marks, and that wouldn’t shock me either.  His MiLB numbers justify both possibilities.  (On a side note: can you believe the rate at which some guys were K’d out last year?  Reynolds, Howard and Cust all pushed 195+ fanjobs.  Nashty.)
2. Conor Jackson (6) - The $1M question: will the power come?  My best guess: eventually.  He got pulled up to the MLB maybe a year early, but who can blame the DBacks with the way he was mashing in the MiLB?  He’s 26 and his stats aren’t overwhelming, but he just looks so comfortable at the plate and so far that’s shown up in his lack of K’s and high AVG/OBP.  If he can clear 25 HRs by the time he’s 28 he’ll be a Youkilis type that I actually believe in.
3. Joey Votto (5) - Again, not a true sleeper prospect; this time because Votto has a pretty good MLB record already, most in the fantasy community know about him, and he’s got a pretty low ceiling as far as hitting stats for a 1B go.  Nevertheless, he stepped up and had a very nice season in 2008 at 24 years of age, and that’s worth something.  Probably a career .300/.370/.510 type; could hit 40 doubles at some point.  Doesn’t seem to have the natural lift others at this position do, but man does he rack up the line-drives.
4. Casey Kotchman (4.5) - Another one of the young guns at 1B who doesn’t bring much HR flash to the table.  Wouldn’t put too much money on him slugging over .500 any time soon.
5. James Loney (4.5) - Everything good we saw in 2007 regressed in 2008.  Would the real James Loney please stand up?  I’ll tell you what, his reality is closer to what we saw last year than what he did in 2007.
6. Billy Butler (4) - Too much success in the MiLB for me to believe his struggles in the Show were for real.  Then again, there are the Alex Gordon’s of the world.  Not going to give you much in the way of HRs, but enough doubles and discipline to go .330/.390/.500.
7. Justin Smoak (4) - The kids in Texas can flat out pound the ball, but there’s just not enough room to go around.  Texas has been shipping out prime hitting talent for a long time now in hopes of garnering a pitching staff that can actually succeed in the ballpark at Arlington, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of their prospects go elsewhere in 2009.
8. Lars Anderson (4) - The Sox eventual answer to the Yanks’ longterm deal with Tex?  Perhaps.  Lots of potential, but let’s see some numbers in AAA before we get out of hand.
9. Yonder Alonso (3.5) - Like Ka’aihue in terms of his power and discipline, but three years younger.  Not good sample size for MiLB stats, but another very highly regarded Reds prospect.
10. Kila Ka’aihue (3) - As he approaches 25, Kila’s not really young enough to be a true sleeper prospect, but he could be in the MLB this year on the crapfest that is KC.  OBP monster in the making, with pop to boot.

Proceed with Caution:

1. Derrek Lee (6) - I happen to really like Derrek Lee, mostly because he carried my main fantasy team in 2005; regardless, his power that year isn’t ever coming back, and neither, just as importantly might I add, are those steals.  At this point, he’s just not that much better than a James Loney type, and he’s a lot older.
2. Carlos Pena (5.5) - I’m not ready to jump on the “Pena was a complete fluke in 2008″ bandwagon yet, but I will say this: you don’t kick around in the minors for 8 years because you’re an otherworldly talent.  Of course, there’s also the relevant fact that his MLB ceiling is pretty darn high.  If you can pay for him at a .265/.380/.520 type of price, you should buy with confidence.
3. Carlos Delgado (4.5) - Yes, Delgado has been a rarely flawed, mostly consistent beast with the bat for the last decade, but, but, but, he’s old.  Stinky old.  In a keeper league he’s just not a viable long-term guy.  Hell, in a non-keeper league he may not be a viable 1 year guy.  Granted, the Mets picked up his option, so they must think he’ll be alright.  That doesn’t give me too much confidence.  2008 certainly wasn’t a misrepresentation of Delgado’s skill, but it may have been a misrepresentation of his health.  Be thankful if you get 135 games out of him in ‘09.
4. Adam LaRoche (2) - Harsh?  Maybe, but I don’t believe in LaRoche and his numbers haven’t done anything to sway me.  Not in the MLB and not at any level in the minors for any consistent amount of time.  And, he’s no longer a kid.  At 29 the prospect tags have long worn off, and he’s still not producing at a fantasy-worthy level.  Might he hit 30HRs at some point again in his career?  It could happen, but I’ll let somebody else take the risk of his underperformance for that mediocre reward.